2020 Election Voter Coalition Papers

2020 Election Voter Coalition Papers

Every two years Heart+Mind Strategies conducts a post-election exit poll, FirstView, to understand how the American people voted, why, and what impact it will have on the future of our nation. This year was no exception and FirstView 2020 uncovered key insights about shifting coalitions in the American electorate.

We are producing a series of white papers that will be released over the coming weeks to highlight key groups and provide a deep dive analysis into how they voted in 2020. Click below to view published white papers.

Get the White Papers here:

Post-Election 2020 Edition RoundTable

During Heart+Mind’s special Post-Election 2020 Edition of the biweekly RoundTable, panel experts discussed a variety of election day topics such as: why are political polls sometimes wrong, which coalitions showed the largest shifts since 2016 and why, where do the Gen Z voters fall out and what is motivating their vote, and what issues were the biggest drivers in this election. Insights were based on data collected on election day among actual voters as part of the Heart+Mind First View election day survey.

Key takeaways and storylines from the data and the RoundTable discussion include:

Uncertainty continues.  Expect continued electoral uncertainty. Consumer stress from the pandemic and election is running extremely high.

Choice and convenience.  These consumer needs take hold in how we vote. Mail voting is here to stay.

Big realignments are dead. No national realignment.  But we do see micro-coalitions forming. Example: Rural, multicultural, less educated, socially conservative motivated by what they are against.

Tribalism continues.   Divisions amplified beyond party.  Especially by gender, education, ethnicity, and locale.

People over Platform. Don’t assume how humans will behave. Don’t take your voters or customers for granted.

Latino and Youth turnout once again did not materialize. For all the protesting, and when it counted, where were these groups?

Stop thinking of groups as monolithic. Millennials, Women, Latino, Blacks, Republican, Democrat, City vs Rural, etc.

FUDD Works. Fear, Uncertainty, Doubt, Division.   Will our stress and anxiety need the message of calm and confidence?

The Senate Club. Don’t underestimate the Joe and Mitch relationship as a way to perhaps get things done in a balanced legislative agenda.

Trust remains the golden ring.  Brands and institutions are under assault.  Expect a renewed effort on reputation management practices and social cause marketing.



Data Source: Heart+Mind First View election day survey, conducted 11/3/20 via online survey

Sample: n=2,005 election day voters

Topics: 2020 election, method of casting vote, presidential race, Senate and House races, Issues motivating the vote including COVID-19, economy, and healthcare, etc.

2020 Presidential Election

Our latest Heart+Mind Pulse tracking data reveals patterns and trends influencing the election, with the majority of voters yet to cast their vote in the next 3 days.

Overall insights indicate a Biden lead, with strong support coming from those who voted early.   Biden has an edge in states where we see softening support for Trump among his historical base of whites without a college degree.  However, Trump’s stronger 2020 performance in the polls among minorities will likely be a key factor in the final results in several must-win states for the Republicans.



Source: Heart+Mind Pulse, biweekly omnibus survey
Interview Dates: October 28-29, 2020
Respondents: n=1,002 Americans, ages 18+

Heart+Mind Contributes to WTOP Weekly Newsletter

This is a political year like no other. More Americans are engaged in the political process than have been in the past. From nationwide elections to local races in the DC region, people will be intensely monitoring what happens next and which path voters will choose for the US.

WTOP News, a leading news broadcaster in the DC metropolitan area, is launching a weekly email newsletter, “From WTOP’s Election Desk” that will offer a look at the national conversation through a local lens. The newsletter will exclusively feature national research, data trends, and insights from Heart+Mind Strategies on COVID-19, the upcoming election, and other national issues.

Heart+Mind runs a bi-weekly national survey, Heart+Mind PulseSM, which has been tracking public opinion since the beginning of the pandemic-induced shutdown in March. Erin Norman leads the project team behind the PulseSM. “Following the evolution of public opinion over the last four months has been fascinating, insightful and critical to understanding why things are unfolding as they are,” says Norman.  

This newsletter is the perfect way to follow the twists and turns of the presidential election, and make sure you’re in the know about what’s happening with local elections in the DC area, too. From now until Election Day in November, the goal of this newsletter is to focus on the political issues and elections that affect DC, Maryland and Virginia, as well as what is happening on Capitol Hill.

In addition to research insights from Heart+Mind, each issue will be filled with in-depth reporting from two of WTOP’s lead reporters, Mitchell Miller, who covers Capitol Hill, and Nick Iannelli, who covers political developments in DC, Maryland and Virginia. Miller and Iannelli will go beyond the headlines, to provide unique coverage of the Washington area’s political whirlwind.

Miller is one of the few reporters who has been working inside the US Capitol during the pandemic and has been following lawmakers as they wear masks and bustle through the halls of Congress. Covering Congress is more than tracking legislation, and Miller will provide insight into the personalities, quirky moments and scenes that don’t always get covered. He will also let you in on some of the secrets of the Capitol itself, which of course has an incredible amount of history.

“Covering Congress is an incredible beat for a journalist, and I’m honored to be able bring you some of the amazing things I see and hear every day, but often don’t get to report on the air,” Miller said.

The first newsletter will go out on Friday, July 24, and continue to be delivered each Friday morning through the November election.

The next few months will be exciting. Let’s all experience history together.

Visit WTOP’s website to sign up for “From WTOP’s Election Desk”.